Three Degrees of Warming

In Mark Lynas' novel, Six Degrees, the third chapter is about what would possibly happen if the global climate increased by three degrees. The most influential changes that would occur are extreme weather-related events, movements of citizens to more densely populated areas, and a great loss of biodiversity among plants and animals. All in all, Lynas emphasized that the most civilized peoples are consuming the world and that with three degrees of warming we would be in a life-or-death situation.

I think that the 5 most important things to know from this chapter are:

1. The places that wish for more rain will get less rain. With three degrees, there will be droughts and famine in southern Africa, primarily Botswana. The Kalahari, which supports cattle herding and the growing of staples, will have raging sandstorms. Similar to the Mayan civilization, one of the most advanced societies in the New World, the Central American countries will be extremely vulnerable to drought.
2. Droughts will increase the chances of forest fires. Australia, one of the driest continents, has "crown fires" which suck the oxygen out of the air and can asphyxiate anyone caught underneath. These fires also spread very quickly. In addition, the Amazon ecosystem, which is home to half the world's biodiversity, has no fire resistant trees compared to some in Australia.
3. Three degrees of warming will lead to a loss of biodiversity and a spreading of diseases. The tabletop mountains in Venezuela make a paradise of various plants which would die from warming. By 2050, between a third and a half of all species will join the "living dead" category. Those species will eventually become extinct because of the changing climate. In addition the mosquitoes that carry malaria and dengue fever will prosper and could travel farther north killing thousands of people along the way.
4. The places that wish for less rain will get even more rain. With three degrees, there will be inconsistent extreme flooding from the Asian Summer Monsoon that waters India and Bangladesh. In the book there is a good description of what would happen if there is a super-Hurricane Odessa in future Houston, Texas. The streets would flood from the Buffalo Bayou river and the sound would be like a freight train in the sky. In addition, New York would have more floods and there would be more storm surge events across Europe.
5. Because of the above circumstances, people would vacate areas and would move into highly populated areas. As we discussed in class, the Indus River which arises in India and flows into Pakistan would have less water entirely and those two nuclear nations would clash for supplies.

Lynas states that the places that would experience the worst wipeout will be those where life flourishes. Lastly, global warming is the result of accumulated greenhouse gases which means that we have to decrease emissions now - It takes time for the world to reach thermal equilibrium.